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Elections help British pound
Does it improve the listing of the Conservative Party, and reduce the risk of emergence of the next parliamentary elections without a majority supported the listing pound, or maybe the resurgent British economy are the cause of improving the foreign exchange market?
Just over a week ago the pound was divided from the hole post-crisis, only 20 pips (1.4781). Last Thursday, it gained 3.4 percent. against the dollar and 2.1 percent. against the euro. For now, this is probably more common with the Greeks than to improve the situation on the island.
The British economy is doing better lately. GDP growth in the fourth quarter was unexpectedly revised up from 0.1 percent. to 0.4 percent. after six consecutive quarters of decline. The relationship growth of industrial production became positive in January after the first time in 21 months. The March PMI index for the industry amounted to 57.2 points. and was the highest since October 1994. The unemployment rate is stable and only 0.1 percent. below 7.8 percent. recorded in June last year. The main partner of the British continental currency, the euro area, are experiencing similar improvements of its variables. Euro zone GDP growth was in the fourth quarter of 2009 is positive (0.1 percent increase. Q / q). GDP also grew in the quarter III. This is the first positive quarter since the first quarter of 2008. PMI for the euro zone industry also indicates a faster growth in the future, noting the value of 56.6 points., The highest since November 2006. The unemployment rate in the area in February was 10 percent. As a result of clearly higher than in England, but for four months does not change by more than 0.1 percent.
The situation of the economy to the other one is stable for nearly a year. The variables describing the economy of UK and European show an improvement at a similar rate in the last six months. If the British economy is slowly leaving behind the crisis, they do so along with Germany and France, EU and their partners. Actually, changing the British GDP and unemployment are better. Despite this, the last six weeks the pound was weaker than the euro to an extent not seen at any time since the beginning of the year.
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Similar conclusions can be drawn when comparing the pound to U.S. American dollar. Economy improving at a faster pace, at least in the measured GDP, but its unemployment rate is higher than the UK and there is little indication that U.S. plans for the stimulus effects were more pronounced than those carried out on the island . As against the euro, the pound lost against the dollar at roughly similar economic situation. As you read on the official website of the British government, "public sector net debt, expressed as a percentage of GDP, stood at the end of February this year, 60.3 percent. To 50.5 percent. At the end of February in the year 2009.
In 2009, the United Kingdom recorded a deficit of public finances in the amount of 159.2 billion pounds, equivalent to 11.4 percent. GDP. "The level of 11.4 per cent. Make the UK deficit is as high as in Greece or Spain. The source of recent weakening of the pound is not the deficit or performance of the economy, but uncertainty as to the result of the May elections. Until now, most polls indicated the increasing risk of the emergence of scenario one-party parliament without a clear majority against the scenario of winning the Conservative Party. The Greek government deficit and debt problems have specific significance for the UK.
In Europe, the Greek debt problem is not possible, but intentions. There is no doubt that the members of the monetary union are able to create and finance support plan for Greece, if only they decided to do so. In the UK, the emergence of one-party elections, parliament without a majority, would create a big problem for a credible plan for deficit control. Without a clear majority of the Conservative Party in the House of Commons, the intention will be less mean in conjunction with functional impotence of the government. Even with the best intentions, there may be problems for any British government pushed draft budget savings.
That Britain gained control of finances, it must have, in terms of markets, a unified government. Parliament without a majority would be the equivalent of one-party national quarrels within the monetary union, the lack of ability to agree, albeit with the consent of all, something to save the euro needs to be done. The currency market takes considerably more than the election of the debt market.
That is why the pound gained, when polls showed the Tory lead growing. The government based only on the Conservative party has a chance to control the deficit, and the parliament is not divided. Perhaps the UK debt market will focus on elections, when it ceases to become more and more problems in Greece.
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